NWS Forecast Discussion
970
FXUS61 KCTP 120335
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1135 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Gusty winds along and ahead of a cold front early this
evening will contribute to an elevated risk of wildfire
spread.
* After a brief cool down on Wednesday, warmer temperatures will
return late in the week and remain with us into the weekend.
* A strong low pressure system will bring gusty winds this
weekend and a threat for severe weather on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
With a cold front pushing south of the Mason-Dixon line later
tonight, winds could stay breezy in the northeast, but winds
will become lighter elsewhere as high pressure retakes control.
Lows by daybreak Wednesday will range from the middle 20s north
of US-6 to around 40 south of the PA Turnpike.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Temperatures on Wednesday will be about 10-20 degrees colder
than Tuesday`s highs as central PA remains on the cool side of
the cold front. Winds will be light as they gradually veer from
NE early to E and then SE through the afternoon. Highs
Wednesday will range from the mid 40s in the northeast to near
60 degrees across the southern tier. Lighter winds should limit
the risk of wildfire spread somewhat, but low relative humidity
(25 to 35 pct) is expected once again Wednesday afternoon.
A few light rain showers are possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening in the northern tier, near a midlevel boundary. Some
wet snowflakes could mix in as well in the coldest spots, but
accumulation is not expected. Later Wed night, a few sprinkles
could make it as far south as the Mason Dixon line.
Temperatures begin to rebound on Thursday and Friday as a
southern stream upper trough passes south of the region. Weak
ridging overtop the southern trough will keep it dry and mild
over Pennsylvania, but clouds will be around as well as the
chance for morning fog. Highs Thu and Fri will generally be in
the mid 50s to the mid 60s with light winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A complex system is expected to impact central Pennsylvania
this weekend as low pressure moves across the central US into
the Great Lake region. Rain showers remain possible, mainly
across western Pennsylvania, on Saturday given westerly flow and
an initial slug of moisture. Model guidance has been persistent
that the best chances of precipitation will occur on Sunday;
however, timing compared to yesterday has trended slightly later
into the afternoon hours. The abundance of moisture, collocated
with the best forcing brings high confidence in rain
overspreading much of the area by the late morning/early
afternoon hours. Enhanced southerly flow will also bring a
second slug of moisture from the Chesapeake Bay to portions of
eastern Pennsylvania during the afternoon hours, allowing for
increased precipitation with PWAT values in recent guidance
lighting up towards the 1.00-1.50" range across the eastern half
of the area. Comparing model PWAT values to previous soundings
for IAD and PIT outline that PWAT values will approach maximum
values for March 16th ~12Z, if model guidance continues to hold.
This rainfall will be largely beneficial over long- term
drought areas of eastern Pennsylvania with no large- scale
flooding concerns at this time.
The slightly later arrival of the cold front will also
introduce severe potential across southeastern Pennsylvania,
where the aforementioned moist airmass, coupled with ample
forcing and strong deep-layer flow will provide some potential
for damaging winds across southeastern Pennsylvania. Given
timing of the cold frontal passage, this threat is mainly
confined to the Lower Susquehanna Valley as outlined on the
Storm Prediction Center`s D6 Severe Outlook.
Another facet of this complex system will be the non-
thunderstorm wind, with the threat for strong southerly winds
maximized on Sunday. A fairly tight pressure gradient sets up
across western Pennsylvania late Saturday, with enhanced winds
on the ridgetops of western Pennsylvania. Recent model guidance
has trended downward with wind gusts/strength of the gradient;
however, there remains slight model inconsistencies within this
Saturday-Sunday morning timeframe. Enhancement of wind gusts
appear more likely on Sunday, where enhancement of the 925mb
low-level jet ramps up across eastern Pennsylvania, bringing an
increased potential for strong winds. At this time, point-based
forecasts exceed Wind Advisory criteria; however, still quite a
bit of time to tighten up the wind forecast on Sunday before
headlines will need to be considered.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected (~100 confidence) through 18Z
Wednesday across all airfields of central Pennsylvania. Breezy
winds have begun to decrease across the region with the bulk of
model guidance in agreement that winds generally drop below
10kts by 03Z tonight. Scattered high- level clouds are expected
to overspread the area overnight and into Wednesday morning.
Across northwestern Pennsylvania (BFD), low-level clouds are
expected to fill in after 15Z Wednesday with moderate (50-60%)
confidence; however, ceilings are expected to remain above VFR
thresholds until near 00Z Thursday. Low end MVFR ceilings could
come into play at BFD at the end of the 00Z TAF package.
The chance for isolated rain showers is introduced around 20Z
Wednesday afternoon, but only across the NW airspace.
Confidence remains low in the coverage of these showers, and
thus only a PROB 30 is in the current TAF for isolated impacts
to the BFD airfield. Elsewhere should remain dry through 00Z
Thursday.
Outlook...
Thu...Isold SHRA possible mainly wrn PA.
Fri...VFR/no sig wx.
Sat...SHRA, highest chances across W PA, restrictions possible.
Sun...Widespread SHRA, TSRA possible across SE PA. Restrictions
probable.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A record high temperature of 75 degrees was set at Williamsport PA
Today. This breaks the old record of 71 degrees set in 1977.
Bradford tied their record temperature today of 66 degrees. This
record high was also set in 1977.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banghoff/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Banghoff/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Banghoff/Colbert
LONG TERM...Colbert/NPB
AVIATION...NPB/Bowen
CLIMATE...Bowen
NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion
