NWS Forecast Discussion
574
FXUS61 KCTP 281742
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
142 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes to the forecast at this time
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A rain-free weekend is on tap
2) Late summer warmth is still slated to end the month of August
and start September next week, with severe weather and heavy
rain threats also present
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: As a frontal boundary continues to slowly sink
southward into the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend, a ridge
of high pressure will become our dominant weather feature. This
will mean partly-mostly sunny days and mainly clear nights
through Sunday. Given our recent wet stretch of weather and
abundant soil moisture in many areas, late night and early
morning fog will be common, particularly in the river valleys of
northwest and north-central PA.
Temperatures/humidity levels will be seasonable and comfortable
through Saturday. On Sunday, as low-level winds begin to switch
into a more southerly direction, afternoon temperatures and
humidity levels will start to creep upward.
KEY MESSAGE 2: During next week, there is good agreement amongst
our various ensemble prediction systems that an expansive
summer-time ridge axis at upper levels of the atmosphere will
flex its muscle and expand northeastward from the southern
states and middle of the CONUS.
There are two primary consequences for the sensible weather
across the Commonwealth as a result of the above mentioned
scenario. First, very warm and increasingly humid weather will
settle in, even as we flip the calendar to September. Second, as
a northwest flow aloft develops over much of the Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast with embedded disturbances, and overruns the
previously mentioned warm, sticky air, episodic showers and
thunderstorms are expected. Although fine details are not yet
apparent, this overall pattern often favors locally strong-
severe thunderstorms and heavy downpours. As we draw closer to
next week, we hope to add more clarity with respect to the
timing and coverage of showers and storms.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A pleasant afternoon is in store for Central PA, with a light
northwesterly breeze of 5-10 kts and partly cloudy skies with
CIGs of 3-4 kft.
Under clearing skies and diminishing winds, with abundant soil
moisture from recent rains, expect patchy fog to develop again
overnight. The highest probability for fog will be across the
northern and western valleys.
Once any lingering fog clears, expect another day with
widespread VFR conds on Saturday. Winds will generally be light
and variable.
Southerly flow will begin on Sunday and continue into early
next week, as high pressure pulls off the East Coast. This will
be accompanied by warmer temperatures and increasing humidity,
which will bring a slight chc of showers and storms each day.
Outlook...
Sat...AM valley fog/restrictions possible, then VFR.
Sun-Tue...Mainly VFR. Isold SHRA/TSRA possible.
Wed...Sct SHRA/TSRA with brief restrictions possible.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Jurewicz
KEY MESSAGES...Jurewicz
DISCUSSION...Jurewicz
AVIATION...Evanego
NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion
