NWS Forecast Discussion
291
FXUS61 KCTP 141946
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
246 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Slight increase in snowfall totals tonight across far
northwest PA and the highest elevations in the Laurel
Highlands - localized 6"+ possible.
* Increased sustained winds and wind gusts from 06Z Thursday -
12Z Friday in the wake of the cold front - isolated wind gusts
over 45 mph possible in the Laurel Highlands Thursday night.
* Heavier snow showers/squalls along a cold front on Saturday
afternoon could lead to a quick accumulation of snow and flash
freeze conditions.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain to snow transition followed by gusty winds and
plummeting temperatures will result in hazardous travel
conditions over the Alleghenies later today into Thursday
2) Windy and much colder Thursday with lake effect snow showers
tapering off Thursday night
3) Snow showers/squalls on Saturday precede a reinforcing shot
of cold air with possible arctic blast into early next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A steady increase in large scale forcing/lift downstream of
digging shortwave trough will promote a blossoming precip zone
over CPA through this afternoon and evening. Mild temperatures
today will lead to steady light rain showers, which could be
just enough to wash remaining salt off of roadways. Hires model
data indicates a rain to snow transition taking place between
4-8PM over the western and northern Alleghenies (earliest in
the NW mtns). Strong 500mb height falls will work in tandem with
an offshore jet streak to induce an intensifying sfc-850mb low
tracking from CPA into eastern NY from 7PM tonight to 7AM
Thursday. This low will drag an arctic front through the region
overnight with temps plummeting behind a cold and blustery NW
wind. A several hour period of lake effect and upslope snow will
develop in the wake of the cold front.
The US220/I99 corridor marks a reasonable rain/snow transition
line with rain being the more dominant ptype to the southeast of
this line. In total, snowfall amounts will be highest in far
northwest PA (northwest Warren County could see localized
amounts > 6") and the highest elevations of the Laurels. Farther
east and south of those two regions, snowfall totals will be
highly dependent on the location and orientation of any lake
effect snow bands. No changes to the Winter Weather Advisory
locations this afternoon, though a reduction in expected totals
in Potter and Sullivan County may keep snowfall amounts below
criteria.
Even in locations that don`t receive much snow, plummeting
temperatures behind the front could result in a quick freeze up
of any wet surfaces. Winds will pick up shortly after the front
moves through, helping dry off surfaces and mitigate the icing
threat somewhat. As colder temps surge eastward late tonight,
expect to see rain mix with or end as snow across the middle and
lower Susquehanna Valley. A coating of snow is possible all the
way into southeast PA by morning.
Single digit negative wind chills will great those heading out
early Thursday morning across the western and central part of
the forecast area.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Strong CAA and northwest flow behind the arctic front will
support lake effect and upslope snow through the day on
Thursday. Hires model runs continue to identify an upstream
Huron connection that may lead to a couple robust snow bands or
streamers. Additional lake effect snow accumulation is expected
to the southeast of Lake Erie before snow showers gradually fade
Thursday night.
Max temps will be 15 to 30 degrees colder Thursday (vs.
Wednesday) with highs in the 15-30F range. The blustery wind
chill factor will shave 15F from air temps making it feel like
0F to 15F. Wind gusts could exceed 35 to 40mph at times in the
Laurels Thursday and Thursday night.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
The mean 500mb trough re-loads with the next shortwave digging
out of Saskatchewan into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
Friday. Height falls and modest warm/moist advection could
result in a round of snow pivoting into CPA Friday afternoon. Reinforcing
shortwaves within a broad cyclonic flow could bring additional
periods of light snow/lake effect snow showers over the weekend
into early next week.
As a cold front moves through on Saturday afternoon, instability
could increase enough to support stronger convective snow
showers/squalls. Uncertainty remains with the extent/robustness
of these showers, but brief impacts to travel are possible.
A blast of bitterly cold arctic air may arrive on Tuesday
with minimum wind chills entering the cold weather advisory
range (-10 to -15F) over the western and northern mtns. Overall,
the pattern next week will remain highly supportive of below
average temperatures for mid January.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain showers crossing the region this afternoon are resulting
in a steady lowering of both ceiling and visibility as the
afternoon progresses. Conditions will first drop to MVFR then to
IFR as a light rain falls ahead and along a cold front.
As the frontal boundary passes, all locations outside of the
Lower Susquehanna Valley should transition to snow by 00Z.
Conditions will drop to IFR in -SHSN over the higher elevation
airfields of KJST and KBFD. Elsewhere...a drop to MVFR in
scattered -SHSN. KLNS and KMDT likely won`t see snow until after
00Z. A blustery west/northwest wind will develop and then
continue Thursday with gusts in the 30 to 35 kt range, possibly
even exceeding 40 kts at airfields across the southern half of
PA late Thursday / Thursday evening.
Outlook...
Fri...Snow and IFR most likely over the NW airspace. Breezy
with gusts from 180 degrees 15-25kt.
Sat/Sun...Light snow/IFR possible.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for PAZ004-005.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for PAZ006-037-
042.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST Thursday for PAZ024-033.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Banghoff
AVIATION...Lambert/Bowen/Tyburski
NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion
