NWS Forecast Discussion
483
FXUS61 KCTP 111124
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
624 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Forecast remains highly consistent
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Patches of ice may glaze over the Laurel Highlands this
morning, and result in locally hazardous travel conditions
2) Winter weather threat for Sun-Mon timeframe continues to
trend very slightly lower.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Patches of ice may glaze over the Laurel Highlands
this morning, and result in locally hazardous travel conditions
Temps are dropping in the wake of a cold front, both at the sfc
and in the low clouds over the W. Model soundings portray a
thermal profile in the shallow clouds which would be mainly/all
supercooled water this morning. With sfc temps now dipping near
32F, we could see some patches of -ZL/ZR as the orographic lift
helps wring out some of that moisture as the air ascends the
Laurels and the tops of the highest spots on the Allegheny
Plateau this AM. Will hold onto the Winter Weather Advisory for
the Laurels, and continue to only mention patches elsewhere in
the wrn mtns. A kicker/help for any precip this AM/early aftn is
a secondary front poised to cross the mtns from N-S from just
before sunrise in the N to mid-morning S. Then, the thermal
profile will get cold enough for SHSN instead. Cross-lake flow
will make a deposit of 1-2" over the highest terrain of the
Laurels and and inch or so in the far NW. Otherwise the wind
gets stronger after the second FROPA - likely generating some
gusts up near 40KT on the highest ridges (mainly the Allegheny
Front/Babcock Mtn. We`ll hold off on a wind advy at this point,
but are mentioning the gusty winds in the WSW for the Laurels
where the wind will be strongest/gustiest.
---------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: Winter weather threat for Sun-Mon timeframe
continues to trend very slightly lower.
A wave of low pressure is set to develop/deepen over the desert
SW and TX on Fri-night. The upper feature which is expected to
drive this development is still off the CA coast. Thus, upper
air sampling/initialization is not infused with any actual
sounding data. Old forecaster once told me to not trust anything
still over the Pacific at model runtime. Advances in model init
with sat data and better first-guesses have improved our long-
range forecasting since then (along with the extinction of the
dinosaurs). Yet, I can`t shake the large amount of doubt that
this upper low/trough brings to a forecast for >3000SM away and
~5 days in the future.
While many deterministic model solutions now take all of the
precip associated with the low to the south of PA, all of the
ensemble systems continue to keep a relatively high (50-60pct)
chc of measurable precip falling over PA sometime Sun into Mon.
Thus, the main message here is that a winter storm - or at
least a meager amount of light precip - remains possible.
Progged temps on Sat night and Sun morning look sub-freezing
over all of the forecast area as a high pressure/cold dome
moving down from the N/NE could make a wedge of CAD. However,
Sunday may hold a warming up to 35F N and 42F S. So, arrival
time of (any) precip would be key to (any) precip type. With so
much uncertainty, we`ve only shown a slight nudge downward in
PoPs Sun-Mon by about 10-15pct from the previous model cycle,
leaning toward the drier forecast that the deterministic model
solutions continue to trend toward.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Western airfields remain at borderline MVFR-to-VFR conditions
this morning, with BFD/JST likely to persist with long-duration
MVFR conditions for the entire 12Z TAF package. The main
uncertainty with regards to the 12Z TAF package will be timing
of lake effect and upslope snow showers that have not been very
well-resolved in recent model guidance. This forecast package
has trended back on near-term mentions given current radar
returns and some low-level dry air at JST before model guidance
does increase at JST after 11/20Z. Mentions continue throughout
much of the TAF period; however, do want to highlight some
period where snow lifts off of the airfield and prevails VFR
with some periods likely prevailing IFR with slightly heavier
snow reducing visibilities.
Another aspect of the forecast will be gusty winds throughout
much of the TAF package across all airfields. A secondary
frontal passage will bring about a subtle wind shift with the
main impact at terminals coming with stronger wind gusts. Wind
gusts above 20kts are virtually certain at all airfields after
11/15Z; however, have hedged slightly earlier on this forecast
package. Most uncertainty with respect to winds comes across the
eastern airfields, where model guidance does indicate that
gusty winds could hold off until later this morning/early
afternoon before increasing more. Airfields at most risk for
gusts exceeding 30kts will be at JST/AOO; however, cannot rule
out these conditions at UNV/BFD as well this afternoon mainly
between 11/15Z and 12/00Z.
Outlook...
Wed-Thu...Sub-VFR most likely at KBFD and KJST with periods of
snow showers.
Fri-Sat...Improving conditions late week into the weekend
Sun...Monitoring potential for winter weather on Sunday. Most
likely restrictions are in southern PA at this time.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ024-033.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo
AVIATION...Beaty
NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion
