NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KCTP 061435
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1035 AM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Noticeably warmer and very pleasant today with temperatures
briefing spiking above normal. A cold front will sweep through
early Friday and bring breezy/cooler weather with scattered
showers downwind of Lake Erie through Friday night. Seasonably
cool and dry conditions this weekend will continue through
early next week. Following a rather wet start to October, a much
drier pattern is forecast with very little to no rain forecast
over the next 7 days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Temperatures recovering nicely from seasonably cool morning
lows. Last remnants of valley fog have dissipated over the
deepest northern valleys.

Longer loop of GOES imagery shows mid level cloudiness
increasing over eastern OH and now crossing into western PA
as a moisture challenged but vigorous shortwave rotates towards
the region from the Ohio Valley. Lack of moisture should limit
its effects to an increase in mid and high level cloudiness,
although there is an outside chance of a rogue shower will be
across the northern tier into upstate NY where models show
slightly higher pwats and spotty light QPF.

Band of light rain showers associated with defined cold front
moving southeast from the Great Lakes should cross Lake Erie and
reach the NW mtns btwn 06-12Z per latest HREF. We were keen to
raise PoPs above NBM based on consensus hires model QPF signal
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NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion