NWS Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KCTP 271311

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
911 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023

Variably cloudy and warmer today with no rainfall expected
through tonight. Expect renewed rain chances Thursday and Friday.
The overall pattern and sensible weather conditions will
improve significantly over the final weekend of September with
an extended period of dry weather and above normal temperatures
for the first week of October.


A nicer morning than the last several round these parts thanks
to the sfc ridge axis that`s built down the east side of the
Appalachians over the past 24 hours, helping to deliver a
drier/lower PW airmass. The result will be a marginal to
noticeable improvement in weather conditions across CPA today.
Variably cloudy skies/breaks of sun (max sunshine over the
northeastern quadrant of the CWA) will allow temps to warmup +5
to +10 degrees vs. yesterday into the lower to mid 60s which is
still a few to several degrees below late September climo.
Partly to mostly cloudy tonight with low temps mainly in the
45-50F range. HREF data suggests low clouds make a return to the
southeast zones into Thursday morning.


Thickening/lowering clouds expected early Thursday with
increasing rain probs through the rest of the period thanks to
synoptic combo of slow moving upper trough/low propagating
eastward from the Ohio Valley and moistening east/southeast
Atlantic inflow tied to developing coastal wave which drives
pwats higher to 1-1.5 inches by 12Z Fri. Max POPs are currently
along the western and eastern peripheries of the forecast area
with the greatest risk of appreciable rainfall (0.25-0.50+")
over the the eastern portion of the lower Susquehanna Valley.


Improving conditions to start the weekend/close out September
behind departing upper trough/low pressure offshore New England.
Anomalous 500mb ridge builds over the area next week leading to
an extended stretch of rain-free conditions with temperatures
trending +5 to +15 degrees above normal for the first week of


High pressure building in from the northeast will allow for some
breaks in the clouds today. While there are still some low
clouds across the west (KJST/KAOO), VFR conditions are expected
area wide by the afternoon.

Some low clouds could form again tonight, but confidence in
restrictions is too low to include any with the 12Z TAF package.
An approaching upper level low will bring the potential for a
few showers to western sites by Thursday afternoon. As of now,
any rain chances look to hold off until after 12Z.


Thu...Morning lower clouds and fog, otherwise VFR with perhaps
an aftn -SHRA in the vicinity of KJST.

Fri...Predominantly VFR, but sct -SHRA possible during the

Sat-Mon...Areas of AM fog, with clearing by aftn each day.





NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Dangelo

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion