NWS Forecast Discussion
311
FXUS61 KCTP 061703
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
103 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Lowered dewpoints on Tues and Wed
* Increased wind gusts on Tues
* Coordinated with WFOs PHI and LWX and bumped up the start of
the growing season by several days due to the numerous days of
well above normal temps the past few weeks, resulting in a
Freeze Watch being posted for late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning across Scent PA and the Lower Susq Valley.
Issued a Public Info Statement this morning with the details.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light snow likely across the northern tier today into Tuesday
morning with a coating to one inch in some spots.
2) Much colder for the first half of the week but warming up
again at week`s end.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Light snow likely across the northern tier
this afternoon into Tuesday morning.
The moisture-challenged system moving in across the Great Lakes
will generate numerous SHSN over the northern half of the state
and in the Laurel Highlands.
Dry air in the llvls will limit the QPF, too. Sfc temps are
expected to get into the 40-45F range across the nrn tier of PA
this aftn, so the p-type may be a mix in the valleys, but mainly
wet snow at elevations AOA 1500 ft MSL as wet bulb zero levels
will be within 500-1000 ft AGL. Still, the above freezing temps
and periods of early April sun will melt any snow that
initially falls during the daylight hours.
Meager CAPE over the NW could generate a briefly heavier spot
of precip/snow here and there. HREF members, GFS, and NAM all
generate a heavier shower or two in the Laurels and perhaps into
the central mountains. Temps should be a little milder than in
the northern tier, but the very highest hill tops may get a thin
coating tonight/Tues AM. Overall, the accums could be an inch
or so in the nrn tier and perhaps a dusting in the Laurels and
Alleghenies.
---------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: Much colder the first half of the week but
warming up again at week`s end.
Tuesday morning mins will be cold enough for frost over all of
the area, but wind of 10-15 G 20-25KT and sub-30F dewpoints should
keep that from happening.
Still, a great portion of the CWA (not in the early stages of
the newly adjusted growing season) will be 066.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo
AVIATION...Lambert/Steinbugl
NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion
