NWS Forecast Discussion
763
FXUS61 KCTP 241843
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
143 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Added Northern Centre County to Winter Weather Advisory
* Extended end time of Winter Weather Advisory from 7AM to 9AM
for the north central mountains
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Quick-hitting minor to plowable snow accumulation for later
tonight into the Wednesday morning commute
2) Increased uncertainty with snow/mixed precip potential
Thursday
3) Mild end to February/meteorological winter -- but does March
come in like a lion with another wintry system early next
week?
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Quick-hitting minor to plowable snow accumulation
for later tonight into the Wednesday morning commute
A clipper system tracking across the Upper Great Lakes will
bring a quick-hitting shot of snow primarily across the western
and northern Alleghenies late tonight through Wednesday
morning. Warm advection ahead of the surface low will combine
with left exit region jet dynamics into favorable DGZ to produce
1-3" totals over the higher terrain with C-1" southeast of
I99/I80. Bulk of the accumulating snowfall will likely fall
within a 4-8 hour window with light snow/flurries after 12Z Wed
across the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Highlands. The snow and
slippery road conditions will impact the Wednesday morning
commute in some areas and may result in travel/school delays.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Increased uncertainty with snow/mixed precip
potential Thursday
Overall, the 2/24 00Z & 12Z model trends have been bearish on
the margin concerning snow/mixed precip potential for Thursday.
A southeastward QPF shift in the deterministic GFS, NAM, and
ECMWF is quite evident in the 12Z runs with NBM QPF matching
closer with AIGFS and WPC to AIGEFS. The uncertainty is likely
tied to shortwave differences in the fast quasi-zonal flow and
strong temperature gradient across the northern half of the
CONUS. POPs and snowfall were reduced via baseline foundational
NBM which accounts for the bearish trends and implies lower
forecaster confidence. It`s not out of the question the
southeastward shift reverses in future cycles, but for now the
signal is considerably weaker than this time yesterday.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Mild end to February/meteorological winter --
but does March come in like a lion with another wintry system
early next week?
Regardless of the outcome on Thursday, Friday and Saturday
continue to shape up quite well as we close out the month of
February/meteorological winter on a nice warming trend.
Saturday looks like the warmest day with max temps in the low
40s to mid 50s running +5-10 degrees above the historical
average.
But does March come in like a lion? Uncertainty exists regarding
the potential for overrunning winter precip early next week as
Pacific energy/moisture catches up to retreating arctic high
pressure. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Conditions quickly improved late this morning, only JST still
has a MVFR CIG as of 1 PM.
Main change for the 18Z TAF package was to slow down the start
of the snow a little for later tonight, mainly across central
and eastern areas. Left timing for BFD and JST close to what
the 12Z TAF package had.
Left LLWS in for BFD and JST tonight.
A fast moving low will track across southern Canada late
tonight into Wed. Snow will overspread western areas around
Midnight. Heaviest snow likely across the mountains, but
expect some snow and lower conditions into MDT and LNS
as well.
By early afternoon on Wednesday expect the snow to be over
with, but still a chance of some upslope snow at BFD and JST.
While visibilities come up east of the higher terrain, CIGS
may still below VFR levels at least through early aft.
The NAM model shows the next system for later in the week to
feature one low well to our north and one to the south, so we
could stay dry after the system tonight, will see what other
models show.
Outlook...
Thu-Sun...Mainly dry with VFR conditions most of the time.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Wednesday for PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-033.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST
Wednesday for PAZ006-012-018-037-041-042.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin
NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion
