NWS Forecast Discussion
987
FXUS61 KCTP 192324
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
624 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Mainly cloudy conditions into Thursday
* Occasional rain Friday and Friday night precedes a dry and seasonably
mild back half/end to the weekend
* Mild weather continues early next week before a significant
pattern shift toward colder conditions around Thanksgiving
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Late aftn update:
Clearing line dropping into the srn tier counties. Have adjusted
sky cover to match trend. High clouds moving in from west will
allow us to keep most of the night`s fcst as is. See climate
section for notes on KAOO.
Mid afternoon update.
Lots of sun along the NY border at the current time, but low
clouds and a hazy fog across much of the rest of the area. No
good way to move it out very fast. Forecast low temperatures
tonight based on having some clouds around the area. Still some
snow on top of the local mountains nearby, but most of the area
is back to green grass, and with the drier air to the north,
the snow will not really add to the chill tonight.
Still expect some sun on Thursday, but days are short now.
Given the clouds to start the day off, mid and high clouds
will not be far off, so high temperatures will be similar to
what we have today. Still a shade below normal. Some models
have a bit of shower activity edging into the Laurel Highlands
by early evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As noted the last few days, the fast northern jet will push
a cold front across the area rather quickly on Friday, with
limited shower activity.
The southern stream looks like it will not phase with the
northern branch, so the area of showers and rain should
be moving out by sunrise on Saturday. Heaviest amounts could
be across the far southeast, as a wave trys to form on the
front. Temperatures across the northwest cool to around 32
by 12Z Saturday, but that depends on skies clearing at this
point to allow for cooling to take place.
--------------
Some new 12Z guidance (EC for example) hint that our area
might get little if any rain on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Trends for the weekend support a mainly dry period, with
temperatures typical for mid to late November.
Another fast moving frontal system by Tuesday, before a
a bit milder for a brief time, then a possible chill. A very
active and fast flow pattern supports the colder air over the
north central states edging eastward toward Thanksgiving. Also
have to watch for any lows that form near the southeast coast.
The main issue will be like on 11/10, where the cold air could
make it to northern FL again. Lake effect for our area will
depend on the directional shear. Too early to pinpoint that
type of detail. The main issue will be another round of cold
and windy conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stratus continues to shrink southward this evening and will
clear AOO, MDT, and LNS by 02Z. Model soundings suggest that
low-level moisture will remain trapped beneath an inversion at
JST, keeping IFR or lower ceilings in place. Visibility has
improved at JST over the past few hours, though it should drop
below 1 mile again for much of the night.
High clouds will increase through the night, but there should
be enough breaks to support at least patchy fog formation. The
best chance for fog appears to be at MDT and LNS, though AOO and
BFD could see at least brief vsby restrictions at some point
during the night. Fog will slowly dissipate through 15Z.
Low stratus will gradually expand north and eastward during the
day on Thursday, eventually reaching all TAF sites by the middle
of the afternoon. This should bring MVFR restrictions to BFD,
AOO, and UNV, while ceilings at IPT, MDT, and LNS should remain
between 3000 and 4000 feet.
Outlook...
Fri-Sat...Rain with restrictions likely.
Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
KAOO power outage being worked by power company. MinT and Precip
values are fine as they both occurred before the outage
started. Using nearest-neighbor analysis for MaxT (averaged
40F). Will leave max wind/gust as missing.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Martin
NEAR TERM...Martin
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Bauco
CLIMATE...Dangelo
NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion
