NWS Forecast Discussion
987
FXUS61 KCTP 170744
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
344 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Bumped PoPs up for the afternoon for the western and central
counties.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Continued blustery with occasional snow showers today over
the western and central counties. A few locally heavier squalls
are also expected this afternoon.
2) An active but generally dry weather pattern ensues for the
second half of the week with a gradual warm up into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Continued blustery with occasional snow showers
today over the western and central counties. A few locally
heavier squalls are also expected this afternoon.
Strong trough aloft with it`s axis just to our west moves
slowly this morning, but picks up an east motion this afternoon.
The enhancement to the SHSN currently (07Z) will likely wane
this morning, but pick back up again this afternoon as the
trough axis swings through. The constant upslope flow will force
us to keep the PoPs higher over the west vs the central
mountains this morning. The instability will increase as the sun
heats things up as the clouds will have breaks in them. The
forcing and heating and terrain influence will re-intensify the
showers and could make a few stronger snow squalls. Much of the
area of concern for squalls is already under a winter wx
advisory. We have mentioned the threat for squalls in the going
WW.Y, and HWO. Many models stretch the showers out far into the
Susq Valley this afternoon. The HRRR has consistently produced
two longer W-E snow bands this aftn: one from wrn LE all the way
through the northern mtns, and second farther south running
from Somerset Co into the Lower Susq. While temps will be
unfavorable for snow to stick in the Lower Susq, places N of
Harrisburg may have an minor accumulation. Thought of dropping a
few zones/counties from the winter wx advisory due to the
limited/low accums expected for the rest of the event. But, the
current SHSN and expected resurgence of perhaps even stronger
squalls in the aftn make it wise to keep all of it going for the
time being. The day shift will be able to revisit the need for
the advisories that go until 21Z.
The wind/gusts are still going strong as of now, but some
slackening to below advisory levels (>30 MPH sustained and/or
46-57 MPH gusts). Mixing during the day/aftn could still bring
down gusts into the upper 30s, though. So, it will remain windy
through the day, just not quite as strong as
currently/recently, as the number of isobars over PA drops.
-----------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: An active but generally dry weather pattern
ensues for the second half of the week with a gradual warm up
into the weekend.
Heights rise tonight, but the general/broad upper trough sticks
just to our west until Wed night. A bit of WAA late Wed and
early Thurs could make --SN over the wrn hills, but only o/o of
1" or so. PoPs are low attm, but see them rising as we get more
confidence in a very minor accum for the west.
Tues maxes will be ~15F below normal. Wed just a few degrees
milder, but still well below normals. The warm air does start
to make a noticeable difference on Thurs, with maxes popping up
~10F from Wed, getting back to normals. A moisture-deprived
Clipper moving across later Thursday/Thursday night could make a
mix of RA/SN for the N/NE, esp if a passage/timing during the
nighttime occurs, but there is a higher prob of precip being RA
in the S/SW. Amounts are expected to be very light, and are only
worth 30-40 PoPs at this range. Another shot or two of upper
energy will visit Fri/Sat. They are also lacking any decent
moisture. It will also be warmer for those potential light
precip-makers.
The warmness will only last until Sun, as a cold front should be
dropping down from the N/NW. We`ll go back 10F or so below
normals for the first part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Precipitation has largely diminished across most of central PA
behind the front that passed through this evening. A few snow
showers are lingering across the area, but nothing lasting more
than 30 minutes to an hour. Looking west into Ohio, the snow
becomes more showery, and each shower drops visibility to 1/4SM
to 1/2SM in SN. So we can expect snow showers of varying
intensity overnight. Tempo lines have been added for these snow
showers as they move over central PA airfields.
Blustery conditions continue on Tuesday as pressure rises will
continue to promote gusty winds with high pressure building over
the Ohio Valley. Scattered lake and upslope snow showers and
squalls are possible through the day. These showers will likely
be more of a cellular structure as opposed to bands of snow
typical in mid winter as the sun does some more work in
disrupting the streamlined flow off the lakes. Overall ceilings
will stay MVFR through the late morning and early afternoon
today, before clouds lift this evening and VFR skies return over
central and southern Pennsylvania.
Outlook...
Tue...Blustery. Sct +SHSN and brief IFR.
Wed-Sat...VFR to MVFR with ocnl light rain or snow.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-025-033-034-037-041-042-045-046.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ019-
025>027-037-041-042-045-046.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Bauco
AVIATION...Bowen
NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion
