NWS Forecast Discussion
311
FXUS61 KCTP 250006
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
706 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Added Northern Centre County to Winter Weather Advisory
* Extended end time of Winter Weather Advisory from 7AM to 9AM
for the north central mountains
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Quick-hitting minor to plowable snow accumulation for later
tonight into the Wednesday morning commute
2) Increased uncertainty with snow/mixed precip potential
Thursday
3) Mild end to February/meteorological winter -- but does March
come in like a lion with another wintry system early next
week?
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Quick-hitting minor to plowable snow accumulation
for later tonight into the Wednesday morning commute
A clipper system tracking across the Upper Great Lakes will
bring a quick-hitting shot of snow primarily across the western
and northern Alleghenies late tonight through Wednesday
morning. Warm advection ahead of the surface low will combine
with left exit region jet dynamics into favorable DGZ to produce
1-3" totals over the higher terrain with C-1" southeast of
I99/I80. Bulk of the accumulating snowfall will likely fall
within a 4-8 hour window with light snow/flurries after 12Z Wed
across the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Highlands. The snow and
slippery road conditions will impact the Wednesday morning
commute in some areas and may result in travel/school delays.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Increased uncertainty with snow/mixed precip
potential Thursday
Overall, the 2/24 00Z & 12Z model trends have been bearish on
the margin concerning snow/mixed precip potential for Thursday.
A southeastward QPF shift in the deterministic GFS, NAM, and
ECMWF is quite evident in the 12Z runs with NBM QPF matching
closer with AIGFS and WPC to AIGEFS. The uncertainty is likely
tied to shortwave differences in the fast quasi-zonal flow and
strong temperature gradient across the northern half of the
CONUS. POPs and snowfall were reduced via baseline foundational
NBM which accounts for the bearish trends and implies lower
forecaster confidence. It`s not out of the question the
southeastward shift reverses in future cycles, but for now the
signal is considerably weaker than this time yesterday.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Mild end to February/meteorological winter --
but does March come in like a lion with another wintry system
early next week?
Regardless of the outcome on Thursday, Friday and Saturday
continue to shape up quite well as we close out the month of
February/meteorological winter on a nice warming trend.
Saturday looks like the warmest day with max temps in the low
40s to mid 50s running +5-10 degrees above the historical
average.
But does March come in like a lion? Uncertainty exists regarding
the potential for overrunning winter precip early next week as
Pacific energy/moisture catches up to retreating arctic high
pressure. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions prevail as of 25/00Z; however,
deterioration is progged by all model guidance at all airfields
for at least some portion of the 00Z TAF package. A clipper
system will bring gradually lowering ceilings west-to-east over
the next couple of hours, with snowfall expected across all of
the western terminals (BFD/JST/AOO/UNIV/IPT) with moderate-to-
high (~60-80%) confidence. Restrictions at BFD have been brought
up slightly to match most recent HREF model guidance, which
appears to be tracking slightly better with respect to cloud
cover/radar returns at this time. The main uncertainty with
respect to snow onset will be across AOO/UNV/IPT where there
will be a battle between low-level dry air and mid-to-upper
level forcing. At this time, think snow mentions will initially
be limited before becoming more favorable after 25/03Z. Recent
GLAMP/HREF/NBM model guidance outlines BFD/JST having the most
favorable conditions for longer durations of IFR; however, have
penciled in mentions at AOO/UNV/IPT for more targeted timing of
IFR restrictions. Mentions of restrictions based on visibility
have been limited at MDT/LNS based on recent model guidance
which outlines there will be a couple hour period of snow;
however, visibility restrictions look slightly limited.
Winds will begin to increase between 25/00Z and 25/06Z with
moderate (~50-60%) confidence. All model guidance points to wind
gusts staying below 25kts throughout the TAF period with many
terminals resting between 20-25kt peak winds overnight and
through 25/18Z before potential for winds to slacken become more
plausible. Some LLWS concerns remain at BFD/JST and have
retained mentions, while a secondary area across SE PA (MDT/LNS)
will be possible (~30-40%) but lower confidence predates
mentions in the 00Z TAF package.
Outlook...
Thu...Low potential (~20-30%) for snow showers across southern
Pennsylvania. Elsewhere, dry with VFR conditions probable.
Fri-Sat...Dry conditions with VFR probable.
Sun...Low potential (~30%) for snow showers across NW PA.
Elsewhere, dry with VFR conditions probable.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for PAZ004-
005-010-011-017-024-033.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST
Wednesday for PAZ006-012-018-037-041-042.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Beaty
NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion
