NWS Forecast Discussion
159
FXUS61 KCTP 080945
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
545 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* A short break on Sunday from the recent stormy weather.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and
evening. Still a chance for gusty winds and heavy downpours
with localized flash flooding possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and thunderstorms later this
afternoon and evening. Still a chance for gusty winds and heavy
downpours with localized flash flooding possible.
Timing of showers and storms over Ohio will be such that much
of central PA will not a lot of time to heat up today. ALso the
airmass over much of the area has been worked over the last
few days, and lower dewpoints are in place. Thus expect less
coverage than on Friday. The one area that still has the higher
dewpoints is across the southeast. This area will have the
better chance to heat up today as well. Not a lot of shear,
but CAPE is still up there.
Sunday looks like a break from the showers and storms, but with
the advection of more humid and hot air again from the western
states, and weak shortwaves moving along in a fairly fast
west to east jet stream, showers and storms will be back in
the area after Sunday again. The current pattern likely to
hold for much of next week, before a cool down late week.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some fog around the area as we head into sunrise here now,
but more in the way of low CIGS in some spots like IPT, UNV,
BFD, and LNS. Other sites still clear.
Main issue the next few hours will be area of showers and
storms moving east around 30 mph from the western part of
the state.
Also added in some more detail early Sunday morning for the
upcoming 12Z TAF package.
More information below.
Storms have mostly cleared out of PA tonight without any more
impacts expected at the terminals from them. Lingering low level
moisture and radiational cooling have allowed for BFD and LNS to
drop to IFR/LIFR conditions where it is expected they will
remain for the rest of the night and into the early morning.
Although LNS may lift in and out in the coming hours with some
high clouds still traversing the area. With recent rainfall in
the area and satellite showing fog development in Lycoming
county, IPT is another terminal to watch for IFR restrictions
tonight. Development in these restrictions less certain/may only
be around sunrise at UNV and AOO.
Some high-res models have signal for a round of early
convection in the early-to-mid morning moving through the
northwest. This may affect BFD. During the afternoon, some
gusts to 20kts are possible, most likely at BFD, JST, AOO, and
UNV. Once again, scattered storms are possible in the afternoon
with mentions as PROB30s. High PWATs and heavy downpours means
that any of the storms may be capable of brief IFR visibility
restrictions should they cross paths with a terminal.
Outlook...
Sat...Pockets of fog in the morning. Scattered showers/isolated
t-storms with heavy downpours and localized restrictions.
Sun...Mostly dry, some potential for isolated showers across far
W PA. Restrictions possible.
Mon-Wed...Scattered showers/storms. Restrictions possible.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Martin
DISCUSSION...Martin
AVIATION...Martin/Lambrech
NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion
