NWS Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS61 KCTP 190334
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1134 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-A few periods of rain showers precede and accompany a weak
cold front that will cross the region Friday afternoon and
evening.
-Cooler conditions for the weekend with a gusty west breeze on
Saturday.
-Frost/freeze risk for Sunday & Monday mornings.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
North-south oriented occluded front is stuck over the
Susquehanna Valley and will likely retreat westward by about 100
NM overnight as vertical mixing wanes west of it and boundary
layer decoupling/and the llvl east/west P-gradient enhances the
near sfc easterly flow. The persistent stratus deck based AOB
1000 ft agl will show a steady WWD push and bank itself up
against the Alleghenies (possibly as far west as the RT 219
corridor) late tonight through the mid morning hours Friday.
Lows will range from around 40F on the ridgetops in Schuylkill
& Sullivan County to 50F over southwest Somerset County. Showers
associated with an approaching cold front could reach the
extreme western part of the CWA by daybreak Friday, but most
likely hold off until after 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A few bands of light to briefly moderate rain showers will
precede and accompany a weak cold front as it drifts east across
the CWA Friday afternoon and evening.
Persistent southeast flow should keep clouds firmly in place
during the day on Friday. As such, expecting the threat for
thunderstorms to remain low across nearly the entire area. The
latest HREF paints a narrow corridor of 500J/kg getting into the
Laurel Highlands coincident with the cold front sweeping
through, which is probably the only spot where thunder is
possible.
PWATs ahead of the front will approach 1" across the southern
tier, but the lack of instability supports keeping QPF amounts
relatively low. QPF exceeding 0.25" will be confined to the
Laurel Highlands with
NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion
