NWS Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KCTP 291026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
626 AM EDT Sun May 29 2022

Abundant sunshine along with warming temperatures and
comfortable humidity will highlight the rest of this holiday
weekend as high pressure overhead drifts to the Mid Atlantic
Coast by Monday.


Special Weather Statement recently sent to highlight locally
dense valley fog that was expanding across the Central and
Northern part of the state this morning, as a result of mainly
clear skies, light wind and moist ground from the recent rounds
of rain over the past several days.

1018 MB Sfc high centered over Northern PA early today will
drift slowly east to the NJ coast tonight. After the morning
valley fog dissipates by 1330Z, we`ll be treated to a pleasantly
warm day and just some cirrus or patchy altcu clouds mixing in
at times with the sunshine.

We`ll start the day with temps running from the low to mid 40s
throughout the perennial cold spots up north, to the upper 50s
and low 60s in the southeast.

Afternoon highs in the u70s to low 80s will be 5-8 deg F above
normal for late May.


Upper level ridge building over the Great Lakes today and
eventually becoming centered over the Central Appalachians
Monday will ensure dry weather today and for practically the
entire area Monday.

Weak low level convergence, increasing upslope flow and
slightly higher PWATs across the Laurel Highlands will bring a
very low over chc for a shower or thunderstorm late in the
afternoon across Somerset and Cambria counties Monday afternoon,
but large scale subsidence will help suppress deep convection.

POPS will be essentially zero today, and will only climb to
around 5% later Sunday over the SW part of our zones.

As surface high drifts off the coast, a return southwest flow
will advect slowly increasing humidity into the region,
resulting in a milder night, with lows around 60F. Light wind
and mostly clear skies may once again lead to patchy late night
valley fog.


The long term will start out summerlike, with an anomalous
upper-level ridge over the eastern United States, providing
fair and very warm weather early in the week. Ensemble 850hPa
support highs of 85-90F Monday and a couple degrees warmer on
Tuesday. Despite increasing heat and humidity, warm temps aloft
are likely to suppress convection.

The upper-level ridge is progged to break down during the later
half of next week. Both the GFS/GEFS and the ECMWF/ECENS track
a sfc cold front across central PA late Wed or Wed night,
accompanied by scattered showers/storms. Significant model
spread/forecast uncertainty arises Thursday into Friday AM
revolving around how far the slowing front makes it before
stalling out. Some members track a wave of low pressure south of
Pa, resulting in a period of rain. Others push the front far
enough south to result in dry conditions. Ensemble plumes
currently support carrying chance POPs Thursday, tapering to
slight chance Friday morning.

Surface ridge and drier air building into the region will likely
result in dry weather Friday PM into Saturday, along with
seasonable temperatures.


Locally dense valley fog will dissipate by 12Z giving way to
widespread VFR flying for the remainder of today. Valley fog
should redevelop tonight with some IFR restrictions possible
into early Monday morning.


Mon-Tue: Generally VFR/no sig wx.

Wed-Thu: Ocnl showers w/chance of t-storms.


Daily record high temperatures for 5/30 and 5/31:

MDT 95/1895|97/1939
IPT 96/1895|94/2011
AOO 91/2011|92/2011
BFD 88/2006|86/2011
STC 93/2006|93/1895




NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Evanego

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion